Israel led the world in launching vaccinations and in data gathering starting in December 2020, but the country is now confronting a surge of Covid-19 cases that officials expect to critically challenge hospital capacity. Israel has one of the highest levels of vaccination for COVID-19 around the world, with 78% of those 12 and older fully vaccinated, the vast majority with the Pfizer vaccine. Yet the country is now logging one of the world’s highest infection rates, with nearly 650 new cases daily per million people. More than half are in fully vaccinated people.1

News of Israel’s setback are understandably raising concerns around the world, about the effectiveness of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine, as well as the transmissibility of the Delta variant. Israel began administering booster shots on July 30, and early results are promising2. The US has announced booster shots will begin September 20.

In Canada, cases are also on the rise. Officials, however, have been trying to ease the public since around 78% of daily cases are driven by unvaccinated, or not fully vaccinated individuals. But if the case of Israel is to be believed, then we’re getting a glimpse of what we’ll see in Canada around January 2022.

Some questions I’d like answered via more informative Canadian data before 2022:

  • Of Canadian daily new cases in fully vaccinated individuals, why did these individuals receive their second dose? If the fully vaccinated individuals catching Covid now received their second dose, say, in February (i.e. visitors to long-term care homes), then it could be that we’re seeing the protection of the vaccines ebb after 6 months, as is potentially the case with Israel. If a majority these individuals received their second dose very recently, then the vaccines are likely less effective against the Delta variant.
  • How will Canada’s policy on mixing mRNA vaccines will affect their effectiveness? We are one of a handful of countries in the world to allow mRNA vaccine mixing, and as a result, international travel for some may be delayed for longer than expected. A few countries have already announced they will not accepted mixed vaccines3.

For daily updates on the Canadian Covid-19 situation, please visit my dashboard: https://mhcui.shinyapps.io/Canada_COVID/

Footnotes

1Wadman, M. 2021. A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta. Science Magazine.
2Heller, J. & Lubell, M. 2021. Israel finds COVID-19 vaccine booster significantly lowers infection risk. CTV News.
3Stober, E. 2021. Thinking of travelling? Here’s where mixed COVID-19 vaccines aren’t accepted. Global TV News.